Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 25, 2026?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 95¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 46.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.