The market moved
-4.7ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will Claude Sonnet 5 debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?
AI · resolves Dec 31 · vol $735.50
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.7pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.