Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 13¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on cme / nymex official futures price — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: CME / NYMEX official futures price — https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.