Will Dan S. Sullivan win the Alaska Senate primary by less than 3%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 8¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://www.elections.alaska.gov/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 9.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.