Will Daniel Noboa win by 6-8%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on to the popular vote margin of victory — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the popular vote margin of victory — https://www.cne.gob.ec/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.