Will David Crowley win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 0.4–0.6%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 87¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://myvote.wi.gov/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 0.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.