Will Democratic House incumbents not win in fewer than three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 27¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on associated press — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Associated Press.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.