The market moved
-11.5ppin 24h · now 56¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by July 31, 2026?
Macro · resolves Jul 31 · vol $24.81
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 56¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 11.5pp shift. Resolution depends on statements from trump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Statements from Trump.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.