Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 30¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on statements from trump — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Statements from Trump.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.