The market moved
-26.0ppin 24h · now 26¢
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 1 · vol $20.1K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 26¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 26.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.