The market moved
-9.0ppin 24h · now 37¢
Will Donald Trump visit Kansas in 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $6.86
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 37¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 9.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information — https://twitter.com/POTUS).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.