Will Donald Trump's tie be another color?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 99¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on white house — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: White House — https://i.ytimg.com/vi/20w7J2JAmqw/maxresdefault.jpg.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.