Will Donald Trump's tie be blue?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 9¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://i.ytimg.com/vi/20w7J2JAmqw/maxresdefault.jpg.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 19.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.