Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 39¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data — https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.