Will ECB lower interest rates by 25bps in January 2025?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.9pp shift. Resolution depends on ecb — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: ECB — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.