The market moved
-4.5ppin 24h · now 2¢
Will Edna Nabess win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?
Politics · resolves Jul 21 · vol $1.3K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.electionsmanitoba.ca/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.