Will Elon tweet 285 or more times?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.3pp shift. Resolution depends on post counter — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Post Counter — https://www.xtracker.io/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.