Will exactly 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 28¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 13.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in china during the calendar year 2026 as published on th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on th — https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.