The market moved
+10.7ppin 24h · now 14¢
Will Farinloye Olarenwaju win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 15 · vol $9.70
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 14¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 10.7pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://inecnigeria.org).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.