Will FDP win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 2¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.