Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 11¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — http://www.cne.gw/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.