The market moved
-8.0ppin 24h · now 41¢
Will fewer than 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 13-July 19?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 19 · vol $207.91
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 41¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 8.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.