The market moved
-16.5ppin 24h · now 7¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 2 · vol $3.2K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 7¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 16.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.