Will France have a higher COVID-19 Case Average per capita than the US, Italy, and Spain on March 1st?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on ourworldindata.org — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: ourworldindata.org — https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?facet=none&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&country=FRA~USA~ITA~ESP&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Color+by+test+positivity=false.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.