Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by 1–2%?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.7pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://myvote.wi.gov/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 19.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.