Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 37¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://myvote.wi.gov/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.