Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 3% or more?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2024 a — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: by dividing the total number of votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all votes cast in the 2024 A.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.