The market moved
+0.4ppin 24h · now 1¢
Will Genevieve Scott win the Republican Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan?
Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $73.36
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 8.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.