The market moved
-16.0ppin 24h · now 30¢
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
Other · resolves Jun 30 · vol $13.36
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 30¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 16.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the value reported by the global land-ocean temperature index for june 2026 when it is released — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released — https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.