Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 18.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.