The market moved
+0.8ppin 24h · now 94¢
Will Haley Stevens win Oakland County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $139.39
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 94¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.