Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.