Will Haley Stevens win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by more than 15%?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 13.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.michigan.gov/sos).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.