The market moved
+2.5ppin 24h · now 39¢
Will Hawaii reach Coral Bleaching Alert Level 1 by December 31, 2026?
Other · resolves Jan 1 · vol $50.00
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 39¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on coralreefwatch.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: coralreefwatch.noaa.gov — https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/vs/gauges/hawaii.php).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.