Will Heather Humphreys win by 20% or more?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.2pp shift. Resolution depends on to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 irish presidential election, scheduled to take place — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election, scheduled to take place.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.