Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 50¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 38.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.elections.on.ca/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.