Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 20¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on iranian government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Iranian government.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.