Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on reuters — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: reuters — https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 41.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.