The market moved
+6.0ppin 24h · now 14¢
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 13, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 13 · vol $753.70
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 14¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.