The market moved
-36.5ppin 24h · now 14¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Sep 15 · vol $178.31
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 36.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.