Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 49.0 and 49.9 in May?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the monthly ism manufacturing pmi report on business — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business — https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.