Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 13?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.7pp shift. Resolution depends on to the next date (et) that israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly ann — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly ann.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.