The market moved
+11.0ppin 24h · now 48¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 31 · vol $249.47
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 48¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 11.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.