The market moved
+33.9ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 1 ET?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 10 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 33.9pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.