The market moved

-0.4ppin 24h · now

Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla on October 9 ET?

Geopolitics · resolves Oct 10 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.