The market moved
-5.1ppin 24h · now 34¢
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $168.36
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 34¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.1pp shift. Resolution depends on israeli government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Israeli government.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.