Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 62.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.