Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.4pp shift. Resolution depends on department of antioquia in the second round of this election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Antioquia in the second round of this election — https://registraduria.gov.co).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.