Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the share of valid votes iván cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 colombian presidential election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.