Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on to the share of valid votes iván cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 colombian presidential election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the share of valid votes Iván Cepeda wins in the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.